Donald Trump is the victor in the 2024 US Presidential election.
Foreign leaders and US corporate executives have flocked to court Trump’s favour, or to forestall early hostile moves by his Administration. He has, for example, already held substantive talks on tariffs with the leaders of Mexico and Canada. US business leaders have bowed to his influence and funnelled millions of dollars into his inauguration committee. His public pronouncements on everything, from tariffs to his bold defence of TikTok at the Supreme Court level, have moved policy and markets. For all practical purposes, Trump is already President.
Battles to come
Trump’s ascendance gives the impression of unassailable dominance, demanding allegiance from all quarters, but his inauguration on 20 January will usher in battles that will define his Administration. For all his self-assurance, Trump faces a series of political and practical hurdles including:
1. Senate confirmation hearings: Confirmation of Trump’s Cabinet appointees will be the first major test. Even with a Republican-controlled Senate, his choices will undoubtedly face scrutiny, particularly from establishment Republicans and Democrats looking to score early political points. He may be ready to sacrifice one or two nominees to secure confirmation of the others.
2. Debt ceiling negotiations: this looming crisis (with the deadline still to be set, in itself a political decision) will give the Democrats rare leverage to extract concessions on their priorities, such as healthcare, climate initiatives, or worker protections. The standoff will test Trump’s ability to compromise without appearing weak to his core supporter base.
3. Congress: Trump successfully secured Mike Johnson’s return as Speaker of the House, not an easy feat, but he will not wish to be seen on bended knee to lawmakers. Mid-term elections are less than two years away. He will have to make quick headway on his promises no later than a year from now, if the Republicans are to retain their majorities.
For the first time in almost 100 years Republicans have gained control of both houses of Congress.
The internal divisions within the Republican Party—spanning ideological, generational, and economic fault lines—will be a recurring challenge for Trump. The populist base’s anti-globalist ethos often clashes with the priorities of corporate and establishment Republicans, creating friction on key policy issues such as trade, immigration, and regulatory reform. A stark example of this tension was highlighted by the recent controversy over H-1B visas, awarded to foreign workers in specialised fields, such as tech and AI. The debate intensified after Elon Musk championed the need for high-skilled workers, triggering a backlash from the MAGA base, which has long demanded a hardline stance against immigration. This clash between that stance and the pragmatic requirements of the tech and business sectors—which recognise the need for skilled labour to maintain the US’s economic edge—underlines the delicate balancing act Trump has to perform to preserve his political coalition.
Another area of conflict within the Administration relates to how tariffs, border/immigration, taxes, etc. will impact the economy and could lead to more inflation. Wrestling between tariff hawks, immigration hawks, pro-growth business, and MAGA loyalists could be intense, unless Trump’s incoming Chief of Staff Susie Wiles can keep the main players in line. Driving inflation down or keeping it in check will not be the governing consideration for many of them, and inflation could creep back up as a by-product of political decisions in disparate areas. Past experience suggests that these battles will be played out on Fox News, Wall Street Journal, Truth Social and other outlets, rather than simply within the Administration.
Impact on governance
Potential dissonance within the GOP could be exacerbated by the composition of Trump’s chosen Cabinet, where loyalty to him has taken precedence over experience in managing large government departments. As in all Administrations, those surrounding the President will have a profound impact on his decision-making. Lack of contrary voices—from seasoned professionals or independent thinkers—risks creating an environment marked by infighting and jockeying for influence. The institutions these appointees will oversee are already suffering a brain drain, as experienced civil servants depart, and the policies they introduce could face severe legal and practical challenges. The infusion of Trump loyalists into these agencies, as envisaged by Project 2025, developed by the Heritage Foundation for the presidential transition, will ensure policy compliance, but could affect these departments’ effectiveness.
Initiatives like the DOGE, backed by Musk and Ramaswamy, could also be disruptive to governance in threatening to dismantle government programmes with little regard for collateral damage. Project 2025 offers a 900-page blueprint ‘to take down the Deep State and return the government to the people’. Trump has disassociated himself from this document, but it was developed by those close to him, including Stephen Miller, whom he has appointed homeland security advisor and deputy chief of staff for policy, a position that does not require Senate confirmation. Trump and his circle will be much better prepared for office than he was in 2017, and they are likely to hit the ground running, with a flurry of executive orders.
Elon Musk has played an increasingly significant role in Trump’s second presidential campaign, and will run The Department of Government Efficiency in the new Administration.
The Decision Making Process
It is natural for a new Administration that reflects differing political strands to espouse and voice inconsistent policies, especially at the outset. Usually, this discordance is reconciled or resolved in the White House, but Trump has shown he thrives on division, which increases his room for manoeuvre and places him centre stage. He enjoys dominating headlines and tends to opt for decisions that enhance his personal image or position him as a strong, decisive leader, focusing on actions that amplify his prominence, even if not well aligned with broader policy goals. This can lead to abrupt policy shifts that capture headlines. Highly reactive to ideas presented to him, he is prone to act on the latest input and the “last person in the room” phenomenon. Social media, on which he will continue to rely during his second term, offers an ideal informal vehicle for short-circuiting process and highlighting his dominance as supreme decision-maker.
Trump’s approach reflects a transactional view of leadership, geared towards tactical gains rather than driven by a consistent, values-based ideology focused on the long term. Trump does not brook interference from either individuals or institutional processes. As outlined in Project 2025, his Administration prioritises personal control, with little tolerance for opposition. His track record—including his first tenure in office and subsequent legal challenges—shows that he views traditional government structures as instruments to execute his will, not independent bodies with their own authority.
While it will be erratic and chaotic and often inconsistent with whatever policies this Administration might come up with, there is a guiding principle to understand how Trump will decide on matters: how does it make Donald Trump look? If it makes him look bold, strong, visionary he will support it; if it makes him look weak or beholden, he will decide the opposite.
Priorities for action
As inauguration day approaches, Trump’s focus will be on fulfilling his campaign promises, and on what he can get done without legislation (i.e. through executive orders) or without having Cabinet appointees confirmed (e.g. by placing “acting” secretaries in key positions and using recess appointments, if needed). His foreign policies priorities will include:
1. North American relations: Trump will act fast in the first days – if not hours – of becoming President, using his executive authorities to act on the border crisis, a major theme of his campaign. He has signalled that Mexico and Canada must take public action to curb the flow of drugs and illegal immigration into the US, or he will himself take dramatic action, from immediate tariffs to a complete closing of the border with Mexico. His threats and jibes have already had an impact in Canada, where they contributed to PM Trudeau’s resignation, presaging a spring general election. With the US seeking to break its dependence on Chinese supply chains, Mexico and Canada stand ultimately to gain from increased investment in regional manufacturing. Trump’s approach will not only strengthen North American economic ties but underline his determination to marginalise China’s influence on global trade. The risk is that, while tariffs and restrictions could pressure Mexico and Canada into compliance, they might disrupt critical supply chains for US manufacturers. Balancing these competing pressures will be key to Trump’s success in reshaping regional trade dynamics.
2. Confronting China: Beijing faces an uphill battle with Washington. It must face China hawks that dominate the Administration and both Republicans and Democrats in Congress, who are tariff ideologues. It will also have to manage former business leaders turned government officials, who understand the risks of economic retaliation. Trump’s China policy is likely to be multifaceted, blending aggressive rhetoric with calculated economic strategies to pressure Beijing, without destabilising global markets. The Administration’s approach will also be informed by the bipartisan consensus that China is the US’s primary geopolitical rival. This dynamic will shape a wide range of policies, from those covering supply chains and cybersecurity, to human rights and military deterrence. It will be the interplay, in both Washington and Beijing, between economic pragmatism and ideological confrontation that will define the contours of this relationship.
3. Resolving the Ukraine-Russia conflict: Kyiv is starting to confront the difficult reality that any settlement will require it to cede territory, such as Crimea and the Donbas, to Russia. The timeline for an agreement with Moscow will be closer than Kyiv supposes, as the US pressures it to accept a pragmatic resolution. Should a negotiated settlement emerge, that does not mean Russia will recognise Ukraine’s westward shift or that Moscow will gradually reintegrate into the community of nations. Russia will never relinquish its belief that Ukraine belongs to its sphere of influence. As hostilities subside, and Western focus shifts elsewhere, Moscow will continue to try to dominate Ukraine. By pushing for a settlement, the Trump Administration aims to reduce the financial and political costs of the conflict, while positioning itself as peace broker. But this approach risks alienating Eastern European allies, especially Poland and the Baltic states, and may only embolden Russian aggression by rewarding Moscow with territorial gains.
4. The Middle East: The region’s fluid, disturbed state offers wide scope for Trump to make headline-grabbing deals. He is likely to prioritise ties with key regional players, like Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the UAE, using military partnerships and economic treaties to bolster US influence, while his Administration takes a hardline approach toward Iran. Reducing US military involvement in foreign conflicts is a priority for Trump, but the unstable situation in Syria and renewed worries about an Islamic State revival underline how hard it is for any Administration to avoid direct (including military) engagement in the region.
And domestically:
5. Regulatory rollbacks: The Administration is poised quickly to dismantle regulations that have slowed or hindered economic growth. There will be legal challenges on some of these actions, but GOP control of the courts, as well as Congress and the White House (for the first time since 1929 – almost 100 years) will smooth the way. Key areas on which there could be action in the first few days include:
- Access to public lands for mining and drilling: opening public lands for drilling and mining will be a cornerstone of Trump’s economic strategy, despite opposition from environmental and indigenous groups.
- Bitcoin and fintech innovation: by streamlining regulatory frameworks, the Administration will aim to position the US as a global leader in emerging financial technologies.
- AI development: accelerating AI research and deployment will be framed as a national security priority, with implications for both economic competitiveness and military applications.
- Environmental standards: Trump’s rollback of environmental regulations will likely spur legal challenges but also attract significant investment in traditional energy sectors.
- Mining of rare earth materials: these will be essential for the tech and defence industries, and expanding domestic mining capabilities will reduce US dependence on foreign suppliers, especially China.
While these measures are likely to invigorate certain sectors of the economy, they carry risks. The rollback of environmental protections, for example, could provoke public backlash and intensify partisan divides, complicating Trump’s efforts to maintain broad-based support.
Relations with the UK
These are already difficult, partly because of Trump’s tariff threats and Musk’s relentless interventions on social media in the domestic affairs of the UK, as well as Germany and other countries. Irked by UK and EU regulatory moves on big tech, Musk has played party politics in the UK (and expressed support for the AfD in Germany). There was already neuralgia between Trump and PM Starmer, thanks to Labour-haters in the GOP, Labour members’ active support for Vice-President Harris, and past criticism of Trump by prominent Labour ministers, such as Foreign Secretary Lammy. The immediate future of the US-UK relationship will hinge on trade agreements and defence collaboration, areas where Trump will probably demand tangible concessions from London, including on defence spending.
Management of the bilateral relationship will be complicated not only by Musk (while his own alliance with Trump survives), but by Trump’s unusual appointment of a special envoy to the UK in UK-born Apprentice producer Mark Burnett, in addition to his nomination of Warren Stephens as ambassador. With this multiplicity of channels and voices, UK ambassador to Washington-designate Mandelson may struggle for impact. Another state visit by Trump, making him the first elected politician in modern history to be hosted for two state visits, could be an effective move to reset relations.
Labour MP for Brentford and Isleworth and Transport Committee Chair, Ruth Cadbury, campaigned for Kamala Harris in September 2024.
Conclusion
Many observers believed the first Trump Administration to be an aberration, but the results of the November election suggest a tectonic shift may have taken place in US politics, increasingly matched by electoral trends in the EU. Whether Trump’s coalition amounts to a coherent movement that will outlast him and endure depends on his ability to manage internal Administration stresses and external pressures to deliver on his promises to the US electorate. Foreign observers will be watching to see whether sustained pursuit of his ‘America First’ doctrine can be consistent with US global leadership, or whether it will push the US into geopolitical isolation.